Expert choices and best bets for the RBC Canadian Open on the PGA Tour this week
Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks for the RBC Canadian Open, which returns to St. George’s Golf & Country Club after a two-year sabbatical.
With the announcement that Phil Mickelson will be front and center alongside Dustin Johnson and others at the first LIV Golf event in London, the golfing world is being turned on its head – for better or worse. But, while that is the case, the PGA Tour continues its season by heading north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open, which serves as a warm-up for the year’s third major, the U.S. Open.
Due to COVID-19 restrictions, the RBC Canadian Open will be contested for the first time since Rory McIlroy won in 2019. He’ll be in the field to defend his title once more, but this time it’ll be on a different course as the event returns to St. George’s Golf & Country Club for the first time since 2010.
That’s terrible, because we’re trying to put together our PGA Tour expert picks for the week. This position could be complicated by a paucity of current course data, which isn’t ideal after a week in which we were hammered on the odds board. So the best advice is to bet small, bet wisely, and maybe even cut down on the number of bets.
Regardless, when looking at the board, these are the PGA Tour expert picks for the RBC Canadian Open, including winners, Top 10, One and Done, and other top bets.
The RBC Canadian Open expert picks are: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Pick to Win the RBC Canadian Open: Sam Burns (+1400)
Burns was last seen on the pitch on Sunday, when he battled back from behind to win at Colonial. Now we’re on another small course that will highlight his exceptional ball striking and, more importantly, his recent status as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour.
Iain MacMillan, editor of BetSided and co-host of my podcast Green on the Greens, agrees. The Louisiana product is also one of his absolute favorites.
I’m here to respect Sam Burns. He’s exploded onto the season over the past 12 months, and deserves to be listed amongst the top golfers in the world. He has three wins already this season, and he’s coming off a huge come-from-behind win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The thing I like the most about him this week, is that he’s fantastic on short approaches, but also great on long Par 3s. He ranks seventh in Par 3 scoring from 200-225 yards out, while also ranking fifth in approach shots from 100-125 yards out, 25th in 125-150 yards out, and 49th in approach shots from 150-175 yards out.
Top 10 pick for the RBC Canadian Open: C.T. Pan (+550)
While C.T. Pan may not be a household name in the golfing world, those of us who work in the weeds know that he’s a short-course specialist who can make an impact on particular courses. According to the data, Pan could be that in this case.
He ranks 22nd on the tour in par-3 scoring average and has gained 0.69 strokes per round over his previous 24 rounds, so he should be able to take full advantage of the five par-3s on this course. I’d be a little more confident if he wasn’t ranked 163rd in par-5 score, but a top 10 at these odds is a tempting wager.
C.T. Pan is my one-and-done pick for the RBC Canadian Open
This is where I’m going for the One and Done this week because I utilized Burns earlier in the year and, frankly, don’t have many ambitions for Pan in this respect moving ahead. The reasons for this have already been discussed, and I expect him to make a huge splash this week.
RBC Canadian Open betting tips
Every week, BetSided’s Iain Macmillan and I deconstruct our best bets and more on Green on the Greens. This week’s podcast, as well as our recommendations, may be found here.
Corey Conners to finish Top 20 (-110)
I love some safe bets to guarantee that the money doesn’t leave us in a huge way this week, probably influenced by Iain’s Canadian-centric picks to honor his countrymen.
Conners is an example of this. Last week, I faded him, and he paid me back with a T13 finish at The Memorial. His ball-striking should be ideal for St. George’s, and a normal-110 to barely finish in the Top 20 in such a top-heavy field is solid value.
Rory McIlroy to finish Top 10 (+110)
When it comes to good value, I don’t see how someone with Rory’s talent can’t finish in the Top 10 at this event.
In compared to the field, the way he lofts his irons on these lengthy Par-3s should be beneficial; his short game has been superb this season, particularly around the green; and we know he’ll always take advantage of Par 5 scoring this week.
Adam Hadwin to finish Top 20 (+150)
Another Canadian, Hadwin, has been impressive thus far this season, but a couple of less-than-stellar events recently have thrown us off.
Overall, he’s gained 0.5 strokes per round on approach during his last 40 rounds while being accurate off the tee and a solid greens player. This should be a decent bet at +150 odds for his national title.
Longshot pick to win the RBC Canadian Open: Adam Svensson (+15000)
This week, we’re going back to an old favorite, and it just so happens to be Svensson’s national championship as one of the Canadians in the field at St. George’s this week.
He popped a few times early in the season, but has recently started to fall off. With that said, he’s rediscovered his DNA when it comes to ball-striking on approach shots and levelling out with the putter. This is worth a dart throw in his national championship.