Expert picks and best bets for the Memorial Tournament on the PGA Tour this week
With our winner, top 10 picks, best bets, and more, we break down our PGA Tour expert picks for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village.
As we enter the full-fledged major championship season while also making some major stops on the regular PGA Tour, the golf season is about to deliver some heavy-hitting tournaments. This week, that means a trip to Ohio for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village.
Last year, we all remember Patrick Cantlay’s win with a big asterisk after Jon Rahm tested positive for COVID while in the lead and had to withdraw. But, with neither of those players in top form, will they be able to reclaim the title at Muirfield, or will new blood take their place?
But, before we get into our PGA Tour expert picks for this week, let’s be honest: last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge picks were terrible. Davis Riley was a strong contender, but I didn’t pick him to win. Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth finished T7, resulting in a respectable One and Done payoff, but the remainder of our wagers were unsuccessful.
But we’re making up for lost time this week with our PGA Tour expert choices for the Memorial Tournament, as well as a few top bets for the week.
Note that all odds are provided by WynnBet. Visit BetSided for more betting tips and guidance.
Expert choices for the Memorial Tournament from the PGA Tour: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Shane Lowry (+2500) is the favorite to win the Memorial Tournament
Shane Lowry is fourth in this field in strokes gained: approach over the last 40 rounds. Lowry, however, leads the Top 5 in SG: Off-the-Tee and Putting, and is second in Around the Green. His form has been severely underappreciated this year, as he was T6 at this event last year. It’s only a matter of time before the Irishman notches his second win, and I’m thinking this is a fantastic field for him to display his form and accomplish it in.
Top 10 pick for the Memorial Tournament: Davis Riley (+400)
Riley didn’t get the win for us last week, but he didn’t show me anything to make me believe his form is going away. The PGA Tour rookie hasn’t placed lower than T13 in any of his last five starts and, if not for a terrible missed putt and a wayward drive OB on the next hole, he could’ve won last week. His ball-striking has been superb, ranking fourth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds, in addition to seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in SG: Total over the same stretch. Getting this number for a Top 10 when he hasn’t demonstrated he can win on tour is a gift.
Jon Rahm is my one-and-done pick for the Memorial Tournament
So, how has Jon Rahm performed at the Memorial in his last two visits? He won in 2020 and was on his way to winning last year until he was forced to WD after the third round owing to a positive COVID test, despite being ahead by six strokes and having already gained more strokes on the field through three rounds than he did in the entire 2020 tournament. By his standards, Rahm’s form has been dubious this year, but we all know his talent and his track record. This is a good bet for this week.
The Top 5, Top 20, and longshot plays are the strongest options for the Memorial Tournament.
Top 5 finisher Jon Rahm (+240)
Everything I wrote regarding Rahm also applies here. Because of his lack of form, I’m hesitant to wager on him to win at such low odds (+1000), which is why I’m searching for a top 5 number. If you’re still north of +200, take this without hesitation.
Chris Kirk (+225) to finish in the Top 20
Chris Kirk has a mixed record in the Memorial Tournament, although he has three Top 26 finishes in his career, including a Top 26 performance last year when he lost more than 2.0 strokes off the tee while gaining only 0.01 strokes on the approach. In his last two events, he’s had two straight Top 15 results, including fifth at the PGA Championship, and he’s seventh in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 20 rounds. At these odds, I’m going to ride this wager till the wheels come off.
Rickie Fowler will take the final shot. (+300) to 20
Don’t look now, but Rickie Fowler is showing signs of life with three straight cuts and a gain of 0.39 strokes per round on approach over his last 20 rounds, as well as improved consistency with his short game.
More importantly, Fowler has a strong track record at Muirfield Village, having finished in the Top 15 four times in the last five years (including a runner-up result). I’d like to see him continue to improve on this, and receiving this number for a Top 20 is excellent value for still trying to beat the narrative as it begins to shift.
Si Woo Kim (+9000) is a longshot pick to win
Can I pique your interest in a golfer who has finished T9 and T18 in his last two visits to Muirfield Village, has a history of being a course scout, has gained 0.75 strokes tee-to-green over his last 40 holes, and is at +9000?
Si Woo Kim is his name. Do I think he’ll come out on top? Most likely not. But, at these odds, I’m very comfortable sprinkling him for the Top 20 and, given how hot Kim can be at times, another modest bet on him to win isn’t the worst idea.
