What factors will influence the outcome of the Warriors-Nuggets game?

The Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets have three of the NBA’s smartest and most creative players. What will the outcome of their first-round matchup be?

The NBA playoffs have a way of selecting the most disciplined, intelligent, and adaptable teams, but it’s still uncommon for the first round to deliver the kind of chess match that could occur between the Warriors and Nuggets.

This series will be as much about feelings as it will be about talent, with artful strokes of skill adorning every possession.

This season, these have been two of the most fun teams to watch. Each has one of the best offensive players in the game at the helm of a highly improvisational system, and both have stars who process the game and move the ball better than any other NBA player.

What factors will influence the outcome of the Warriors-Nuggets game?

It’s impossible to talk about this series without thinking about what it could have been if not for the cruelty of injury.

Steph Curry missed the final 12 games of the regular season due to a sprained left foot, and he’ll be a game-time decision for Game 1; how soon and how effectively he’ll play is the biggest and least known question heading into this series.

Jamal Murray has yet to play for the Nuggets this season, and Michael Porter Jr. has missed all but nine games due to recurring back issues. Neither has been ruled out of playing in the playoffs, but there are no strong indications that either will.

Despite Curry’s uncertain status and the Nuggets’ absence of two key players, this series will allow us to see the best offensive player in basketball go up against one of the NBA’s best defenses.

That battle will be fought primarily at the team level, with Nikola Joki and Draymond Green—arguably the best offensive and defensive players of their generation, respectively—leading the way.

This may be the best defense that Joki has ever faced in the playoffs. The Nuggets’ fluid pass-and-cut offense will likely decide who moves on to the next round, based on how well it works against the Warriors’ connected, shape-shifting defense.

Denver’s offensive end of the floor features a few intriguing stylistic and statistical contrasts. The Warriors allowed the most shots from four to 14 feet in the regular season, while the Nuggets shot the fourth-highest percentage of any team from that range.

During the regular season, the Warriors were willing to give him that shot out of the pick-and-roll:

Against most bigs, giving up a floater is preferable to giving up a layup or a kickout, but Joki hits those shots with such precision that it changes the calculus.

Do the Warriors position their big men higher up the court? Bring in help from the weak side of the lane? The more pressing question is how Golden State will defend Joki when he has the ball in the high and low post.

As one of the best passers and scorers in the game, Joki will inflict pain against any type of defensive coverage, and the Nuggets are constantly moving cutters and shooters into high-value areas of the floor.

Play Joki against a single defender, and he’ll use his arsenal of spins, fakes, and hooks or drop moon balls over the top of the defense; throw a second defender at him, and he’ll almost always find an open teammate (often without even looking). So “defending” him is simply a matter of mitigating the harm.

Many teams take the approach of slowing down the superstar and “making the other guys beat you,” but that’s a tough sell when forcing the ball out of Joki’s hands often amounts to letting him find a wide-open teammate.

During the regular season (during which Green missed all four games against the Nuggets), the Warriors seemed content to let Joki work one-on-one with Kevon Looney without bringing much post help, and that may be the best way for them to start this series.

As dangerous as Joki is as a scorer, he’s even more lethal when he can exploit defensive gaps with his passing, and bringing in more defenders only widens those gaps.

Green is the Warriors’ most dynamic center and best one-on-one defender of Joki, and it will be a matter of when, not if, those two collide. Steve Kerr, on the other hand, is likely to use that card sparingly.

If the Warriors go with their usual starting lineup, Looney — the biggest body in the rotation — will get the first crack at defending Joki, allowing Green to roam as a help defender while sparing him the physical toll and foul trouble that come with wrestling a balletic grizzly bear on the block.

Other than Looney, no Warrior stood a chance against Joki during the regular season, so switching actions involving Joki is probably out of the question. While the Warriors are an excellent defensive rebounding team with Green on the floor, they must be hyper-vigilant about finding and putting a body on Joki every time one of his teammates shoots.

If Golden State can contain Joki with just one defender, it will help if the defenders are intelligent and connected enough away from the ball to deny cutting layups and wide-open spot-up 3s.

The Nuggets’ rotation includes enough offensive non-threats that the Warriors’ savvy defenders should be able to sink into the lane and discourage layups.

If Joki is unstoppable with a single defender, Denver is so short on secondary scoring threats that forcing the ball out of his hands and daring the other Nuggets to shoot may be the Warriors’ best strategy.

The Nuggets shot 35.6 percent on three-pointers this season, tied for 17th in the NBA, and have a number of players that the Warriors will actively leave open to fill holes elsewhere.

Murray’s return would help shift Golden State’s defense away from Joki, but otherwise the burden will fall primarily on Will Barton and rookie Bones Hyland.

Denver will need at least one of those two to score consistently, as well as reliable secondary playmaking from Monte Morris and some offensive punch from the backcourt trio of Austin Rivers, Bryn Forbes, and Facundo Campazzo. (Yikes!)

On the other end of the court, the Warriors may not mercilessly attack Joki in pick-and-roll like Chris Paul and the Suns did (especially if Curry isn’t in the lineup), but Golden State’s free-flowing motion offense could still exploit his lack of perimeter footspeed.

But when the Warriors downsize with Green at center, he’ll struggle to keep up with all of the handoffs and screening actions the Warriors will throw at him.

Shooters like Curry, Thompson, and Jordan Poole will force Denver’s big men to get out on the floor and either contest shots or trap the ball, allowing the Warriors to play four-on-three. This could also render DeMarcus Cousins ineffective, relegating more mobile big men like Jeff Green, JaMychal Green, and Zeke Nnaji to backup center.

Poole also adds some downhill zip to the Warriors’ offense, and he may be the best player to target Denver’s bigs in the pick-and-roll. Golden State will require his on-ball creation, particularly if Curry is limited or unavailable.

Another key indicator at that end of the court will be how frequently the Warriors can get to the basket. Denver’s defense allowed the highest percentage of field goals within four feet of the basket this season, while Golden State shot the second-highest percentage — a result of frequent slips and cuts into the paint.

However, the Warriors did not create many of those shots, and whether they can find more opportunities for easy layups could decide the series.

In the absence of a fully healthy Curry, the Nuggets rotate and recover well enough to theoretically limit Golden State’s easiest looks, and Aaron Gordon provides a strong, agile on-ball defender to throw at Curry.

Denver was also the best defensive rebounding team in the NBA this season, and should limit Golden State’s second chances throughout the series.

Even if Curry is fully healthy, the Nuggets have the best player in this series — and thus a fighting chance. Golden State, on the other hand, has more offensive options, a stronger defense, and fewer weak links on both ends of the floor.

If Curry were absent for more than two games, the series could swing in Denver’s favor. Otherwise, the Nuggets’ roster may be too depleted to compete with a healthy Warriors team.

My pick: Warriors in 6

Who controls the pace?

There may be no team in the Eastern Conference under more pressure to win in the first round than the Sixers, and no team under more pressure to lose than the Raptors.

Toronto arrived by outperforming expectations and alchemizing into a defensive hydra that overwhelms opponents with length, activity, and all-out effort. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has an MVP candidate in his prime, an aging second star, and a desire to make the most of the time those two have together.

The Sixers have by far the best player in the series—and possibly the two best players—but the Raptors’ frenetic style provides them with a few distinct advantages that could help them overcome that top-end talent disparity.

The Sixers’ ability to deal with the Raptors’ athleticism and activity on both ends, as well as their ability to slow the game down to their preferred pace, may be the series’ defining question.

Only the Memphis Grizzlies created more offense in transition than the Raptors this season, and while those opportunities are typically more difficult to come by in the playoffs, the Sixers had one of the league’s worst transition defenses and may lack the necessary speed and stamina to keep up with the Raptors on the open floor (especially with Matisse Thybulle not fully vaccinated and unavailable for games in Toronto).

The Raptors, who have struggled to score in previous playoff series, will benefit from a fast-paced series because they can better show off their athleticism in the open court.

The 76ers’ lack of quickness may also hurt them on the defensive glass, where they were only an average defensive rebounding team this season.

In contrast, Toronto had the second-most offensive rebounds of any team in the NBA, and the Raptors attacked the offensive boards by soaring in from the perimeter before opponents could box them out.

They’re almost always faster at recovering loose balls than their opponents, and they should be able to create second shot opportunities throughout the series. (Embiid could also take advantage of the Raptors’ lack of size on the offensive glass.)

When the Sixers play the Raptors this season, they’ll have to deal with their length and aggression in a different way than they usually do.

Of course, Embiid represents a new challenge for Toronto, though the Raptors have planned for him as well as any team in the NBA since Nick Nurse took over as head coach. Toronto excels at rotating on the fly and covering the entire court, making help defense difficult to anticipate.

The Raptors will try to swarm Embiid’s post-ups, force the ball out of his hands and recover to shooters, or jump his passing lanes, regardless of who Embiid’s primary defender is (there will be several).

Embiid will get his share of free throws, but Toronto’s defense is more disciplined than most, and Nurse will get creative with the coverage he throws at Embiid.

Help will come from everywhere, and the Sixers will have only a few minutes to attack a defense that is scrambling. It is here that they may be harmed not only by their lack of physical quickness, but also by their slow decision-making.

As good as Harden and Embiid are at reading defenses while holding the ball, neither is a great ball-mover, and Philadelphia lacks an offensive connector who can keep possessions moving with quick decisions.

The Raptors have given up more corner 3s than any other team in the NBA this season, and those shots will be available as long as Embiid’s teammates are decisive when he gets the ball, attacking before Toronto’s defense can recover rather than stalling possessions.

The play of James Harden, who has looked slower off the dribble and struggled to put together consistent stretches of dominance as a Sixer, will be another key variable in this series.

If he’s the series’ second-best player (or even the series’ best player), Philadelphia could have an insurmountable top-end talent advantage. However, because of his recent problems and the Raptors’ many physical wing defenders, Harden may have a hard time in Toronto.

There is no obvious weak link in Nurse’s short rotation for Harden to isolate, no lead-footed big man to torch on switches, and the Raptors will be content switching screens to keep Harden from getting downhill in the pick-and-roll.

Harden only attempted 24 shots against Toronto as a Sixer, and he frequently struggled to separate from the Raptors’ rangy centers on switches.

If Harden is unable to consistently beat defenders off the dribble, it will shift a significant portion of the scoring and playmaking burden to Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

While Embiid has improved as a passer this season, Harden remains the team’s best playmaker, and if that source of offense disappears (at least partially), it’s difficult to see where the Sixers can find consistent offense outside of Embiid and Maxey.

Toronto has more offensive options, though none are as effective as simply passing the ball to a superstar and letting him do his thing. Siakam has become a dynamic shooter in the second half of the season, giving the Raptors hope that they can avoid the type of slumps they’ve been plagued by in the past. Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. have become more consistent at making shots off the dribble.

Still, the Raptors may struggle to get baskets in the halfcourt, especially with Embiid waiting to deflect shots at the rim. Small lineups with Siakam or Scottie Barnes at center may create more space to attack by drawing Embiid away from the basket. Embiid will almost certainly dare them to shoot, and how much those small-ball centers can make Embiid pay for assisting them could be a pivotal battleground in the series.

Perhaps Maxey makes a breakthrough series this season, or role players like Thybulle, Harris, Green, and Furkan Korkmaz make enough shots to punish the Raptors for overcommitting to Embiid. Alternatively, Embiid may be so good that nothing else matters.

There’s a good chance, though, that the Raptors will get Embiid to make just enough mistakes and turnovers that the Sixers will lose a close series. This is because the Sixers have a lot of problems with speed, Thybulle isn’t available, there is no reliable backup center, and Harden can’t keep up with tough perimeter defenders.