If you’re at Harbour Town Golf Links this week, we’re going to be talking about the RBC Heritage and giving you our PGA Tour experts’ picks, best bets, and other things.
Some may consider the fact that the normal PGA Tour schedule resumes directly after the Masters to be a letdown, but you won’t hear that from me.
This week, we’ll be at Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage, where Stewart Cink, a three-time winner, defends his title against a tough field that includes Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, and others.
With our picks and best bets at Augusta, we had some hits and misses. Cameron Smith was our huge winner, but we also got Sam Burns to miss the cut, Tiger Woods to make the cut, and Matt Fitzpatrick to finish in the Top 20. We had a decent week, but we can do better.
That’s our goal as we head into the RBC Heritage this week in Hilton Head, SC, with our PGA Tour expert predictions and best bets.
Expert choices for the Valero Texas Open on the PGA Tour: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Daniel Berger is RBC Heritage’s one-and-done pick.
Berger is widely acknowledged as one of the best players on the PGA Tour. He has problems, at least for the most part, when he is required to play a very long golf course.
When he’s on, he’s a ball-striker but not a long hitter, and he also has an exceptional short game. For those reasons, the RBC Heritage should be a perfect fit for him, and I’m betting on a strong showing at Harbour Town after a strong showing at Augusta, which hasn’t been kind to him in the past.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+240) of RBC Heritage is a top ten pick for RBC Heritage.
With the way Matt Fitzpatrick is currently performing, I can’t possibly not bet on him. Last week, he cashed as a top 20 choice at The Masters, and he’s a perfect fit here, as proven by his T4 finish at Harbour Town in 2021.
Because, well, he hasn’t done that, I’m creeped out by picking him to win. However, at around +200, a top 10 finish appears to be a huge gamble for him. Fitzpatrick is one of BetSided’s three outright picks this week, and Iain MacMillan agrees.
At this stage, I’m committed to betting on Matt Fitzpatrick util he wins an event, because it still seems like it’s a matter of when as opposed to if. Not only that, but this course fits his style considering his accuracy off the tee is much better than his distance. He ranks 139th in driving distance, but 40th in driving accuracy.
He’s also third in scrambling percentage, so when he misses a green, he should have no issue saving par. Finally, he has a great course history here, with three top 20 finishes in his last four starts, including a fourth place finish last year.
With his present form, Fitzpatrick should have another successful week.
Pick to Win RBC Heritage: Dustin Johnson (+1800)
Part of this selection is based on a gut feeling based on patterns. Dustin Johnson isn’t getting enough credit for his recent performances, which include a T12 at The Masters, a fourth at the Match Play, a T39 at Valero, and a T9 at The Players.
More importantly, he’s been hitting the ball incredibly well with all of his clubs other than his driver and putter. At this location, DJ appears to be taking a cautious, calculated approach this week, hitting a lot of 3-woods from the tee to preserve the precision he needs at this location.
When you combine it with his approach to play, I think he’ll come out on top with a much-needed win this season.
The RBC Heritage’s greatest bets on the PGA Tour
Before we get into the remainder of the picks, you can watch Iain MacMillan and I break down some of our picks and best bets for the BetSided YouTube channel, including one not featured in this column for a Top 5 (or Top 10) play.
Si Woo Kim is expected to place in the top 20 (+250)
Si Woo Kim is the most famous golfer for being a Pete Dye specialist, and Harbour Town Golf Links is a Pete Dye design.
He’s flourished on Dye courses throughout his career and has a good, albeit unpredictable, history here, with a second-place finish, a T14, and a T33 over the years. Kim performed admirably at the Masters, but he is now in a position to shine. This deal is too good to pass up for just a Top 20 play.
Harold Varner III (+240) finished in the top 20
HV3 was my top 20 pick in the video betting preview with Iain, and I’m sticking to my guns and calling this one of my greatest bets of the week.
Varner’s one major issue this week is his driving accuracy, which hasn’t been great in the past. He’s made strides in that area recently, and, like DJ, he’s capable of clubbing at a venue like this.Aside from that, his approach and play around the green have been fantastic, and this is a fantastic bargain for a Top 20 player.
Chris Kirk (+250) to finish in the top 20
We’re trying out a new strategy here, aiming to be more conservative with our top picks while still looking for value. As a result, we have three top 20 bets on WynnBet, all of which have +240 odds or better, and Kirk is another guy I like this week (and of late).
He’s a relatively accurate hitter off the tee, and his approach game has improved dramatically in recent months, resulting in some spectacular finishes. Add in some much-needed rest and a top 10 finish here last year, and I think he’s a top 20 play.
Adam Svensson (+15000) is a longshot pick to win
I’ve dipped my toe into this well before, but I really like what Svensson brings to the table, especially on a shorter course that may play to his ball-striking prowess.
The Canadian was seen threatening at the Honda Classic, which emphasizes accuracy and precision over distance—similar to the RBC Heritage. Svensson might be a very live sleeper at these long odds given his game, especially if he can even be average with the putter.