When it comes to betting on UFC 272, it’s not just about finding the finest props; it’s also about avoiding the props that are particularly unpredictable during the night.
It’s usually simple to bet on MMA fights where one fighter is stepping in on the short notice. Look at the matchup, observe the fighter who has been in the gym for the past two months training for a fight, and put your money on him.
Sure, the fighter who has been training for months has been preparing for a different opponent and fighting style, but this only affects betting by raising the likelihood of a decision.
The UFC 272 fight between Rafael Dos Anjos and Renato Moicano, on the other hand, appears to have a chance to be different.
Moicano stepped up with only four days’ notice after Dos Anjos’ original opponent, Rafael Fiziev, withdrew from Saturday’s match after testing positive for COVID-19. Moicano’s most recent UFC fight was less than a month ago when he submitted Alexander Hernandez at UFC 271.
Rafael Dos Anjos is at much more risk of losing at UFC 272 thanks to Renato Moicano.
Moicano has won three of his last four fights, all of which have ended in a rear-naked choke. His striking has vastly improved over the last year and a half, as evidenced by his dominating victory over Hernandez.
In the meantime, Dos Anjos hasn’t fought in the UFC since November of 2020. Dos Anjos’ win, a decision over Paul Felder, was only his second since 2017, and he now has a 2-4 record in the last four years. Dos Anjos has a slight advantage going into this fight, having spent months preparing for it, but his recent history is poor and does not inspire confidence.
This is about that should be avoided at all costs when betting since it contains far too many mental contradictions. In recent memory, the better-prepared fighter has not looked good, but the fighter with four days’ notice and less than a month’s interval from his last bout appears to be the better fighter on paper.